The world is facing a climate crisis of unprecedented proportions, and the signs are everywhere. From record-breaking heatwaves to devastating wildfires, the planet is in peril, and the UK is no exception. As the mercury soars, the country is grappling with a host of challenges, from food shortages to rising costs and a weakening climate consensus among political parties.
The charts are alarming, and the data is clear: the UK is in the midst of a climate emergency. The heatwaves have led to nearly 3,000 deaths, and half of England and Wales are in drought. The situation is even more dire overseas, with wildfires burning thousands of square kilometres of land in Spain and France, claiming 16 lives. Record-low water levels on the Rhine and Danube rivers threaten Europe's industrial heartlands, and the picture is only set to intensify in the coming months.
The culprit? A combination of climate change and a super El Nino, a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is wreaking havoc with global weather systems, resulting in extreme rainfall in some parts of the world and devastating drought in others. Experts warn that recent temperatures are no anomaly, with worse to come unless we ramp up efforts to phase out fossil fuels and invest more heavily in renewable energy sources.
Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, warns that this will be the least extreme climate we will experience in our lifetimes, and we need to pressure politicians to do more and faster. The combination of climate change and the super El Nino means that 2026 is set to be the warmest or second-warmest year on record, continuing a pattern of global temperatures increasing year after year.
Gareth Redmond-King, international lead at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, echoes the concerns, saying that this extremely hot and dangerous summer risks being one of the coolest for the rest of our lives if we keep burning coal, oil, and gas and destroying nature. The Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, criticises the government for not doing enough to address the current climate and urges the new prime minister to do more.
Fleur Anderson, Labour MP for Putney and chair of the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on climate change, adds that we need to remember this period when the hot weather goes away and join up government thinking between different departments to address all the different areas of our lives that are affected by climate change. The latest Met Office data shows that rainfall in July was the lowest it has ever been in records stretching back more than 250 years.
The consequences of this climate crisis are far-reaching. By 2050, 92 per cent of existing homes could be suffering from overheating, and the UK will struggle to maintain its food supply as early as 2030. Farmers have already warned that drought and heatwaves are likely to result in shortages, and they may have to stop growing certain vegetables. Some 46 per cent of roads and 54 per cent of railways will also be at risk of flooding by 2050, and the cost of heatwaves over the next 50 years is set to be £64bn.
The cost of these fires, as well as those in other parts of Europe, is currently estimated at more than €3bn (£2.6bn). Members of the APPG are calling on the government to move responsibility for climate resilience from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) directly to the Cabinet Office. Minister for climate transition Katie White says that British firefighters are telling us they’ve never seen anything like this, and we must build our resilience and cut the dirty emissions driving this.
The world is set to experience a climate phenomenon known as El Nino, which is when unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean lead to droughts or increased rainfall in different parts of the world. This year’s “super” El Nino is set to be more severe due to a particularly high forecast temperature rise, as well as the climate crisis further exacerbating weather patterns. Analysis of El Nino forecasts from Carbon Brief suggests that the next is set to be by far the strongest on record.
In the UK, it risks heightening food shortages, as millions of small-scale farmers around the world who supply the UK with tropical fruits, cocoa, coffee and tea will struggle due to the disrupted weather patterns. The consequences overseas are set to be catastrophic, with warnings that up to 50 million people could be pushed into acute hunger before the end of next year.
The past 10 years have already seen the number of people facing a food crisis double, according to the United Nations, with data also showing that foreign aid has fallen to a 10-year low. As warnings about the climate crisis intensify, how Britons are feeling about the impacts is becoming clearer. A survey published by the think tank IPPR this year found that 81 per cent felt unprepared for the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
But experts stress that there remains every hope that the worst impacts can still be avoided and the world’s climate can be stabilised if we continue – as the vast majority of the world outside the US is doing – to roll out renewables and pursue a goal of net zero emissions. Professor Elizabeth Robinson, head of the Grantham Climate Institute at the London School of Economics, says that there is still time for us to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters.
Dr Otto adds: “This is a problem that is solvable. We know how to replace fossil fuels with renewables, we know how to lower demand, we know how to redesign cities and landscapes to be much better adapted to increasing floods, extreme heat and drought. Climate change is one of the defining challenges of our time, but it is also one where clear, informed decisions and sustained action can shape a much better future for all.”
